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NBA trade deadline: Analyzing Kyle Lowry’s fit on Sixers, Aaron Gordon’s value, John Collins’ future and more

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By Seth Partnow and Danny Leroux Mar 24, 2021
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As we approach the trade deadline at 3 p.m. Thursday, there are more than a few threads and storylines that will significantly affect the NBA now and moving forward. With that in mind, The Athletic’s Danny Leroux and Seth Partnow decided to take stock of what is shaping this unusual deadline and what they expect to transpire.
Danny Leroux: The question that interests me most right now is something entirely new to teams’ decision-making this season: the play-in. While the NBA had a small play-in last season, that originated post-COVID, so it did not factor in front offices’ mindsets at the 2020 deadline. There are teams in both conferences that have a weak chance at a top-eight seed but a real shot of finishing with one of the 10 best records. Is that enough to prevent them from being sellers?
Seth Partnow: I think based on reporting we’ve seen thus far, it’s already having that effect. If the Chicago Bulls were a longshot playoff team at this point, Garrett Temple and Thaddeus Young would be two of the top names being discussed right now. As I wrote earlier this week, I’m not sure the degree to which this is because of the play-in per se, or the unusual degree of compression in the standings. As of this writing, the Toronto Raptors are in 11th place in the East, completely out of the play-in spots. They are also only five games out from having home court in the first round.
Leroux: It totally feels like you are right, and that is genuinely shocking to me when you consider how weak the return is for one of those slots. Beyond having to win two consecutive contests to even make the best-of-seven playoffs, a 9- or 10-seed play-in winner faces the top seed in its conference in the first round. That means pretty marginal and possibly zero additional revenue for those franchises even with allowed fans (depending on where games are hosted), and the best-case scenario is almost always an unceremonious exit a week or two later. This is often more of an ownership decision than one up to a general manager, but I would be emphasizing the limited upside of finishing ninth or 10th.
Partnow: We could also be overselling this to a degree. Without having done a detailed year-to-year study, I can’t say for certain. But it is certainly my impression that the top contenders are more constrained than usual this year in terms of having the mechanisms to execute a trade. Encumbered draft capital, hard-cap implications and a dearth of both young players with value and non-essential players to be used as outgoing salaries are huge factors as well. Absent those concerns, I think we’d be hearing a lot more chatter about teams approaching Indiana about one or more of Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner. Similarly, Nikola Vucevic might be in more active talks if teams had more assets with which to tempt Orlando.
I’m not sure it will be a quiet deadline, but absent the possibilities of one or two guys ending up on the right team, I don’t think it will be especially impactful, at least with respect to the 2021 postseason. Do you agree with that assessment?
Leroux: I do, especially with James Harden coming off the board back in January and so many of the other candidates earning high salaries, which forces teams with limited flexibility to cobble together matching salary, a complication that is looming large in the Kyle Lowry negotiations.
Partnow: Not to mention Jrue Holiday before the season, which both took a major piece off the board and largely removed Milwaukee’s ability to make further major moves.
Leroux: Exactly. Another big challenge this time around is that so many of the potential difference-makers are on contracts running beyond this season, so front offices in places like Orlando and Indianapolis have to evaluate whether Vucevic and Sabonis/Brogdon/Turner fit in their future plans. My read has long been that general managers are typically optimistic about their future, and it would be unsurprising to see some front offices mired in disappointing seasons attribute those struggles to COVID and the unusual nature of this campaign, allowing them to retain hope that 2021-22 will be far brighter.
Partnow: So it’s Lowry, Aaron Gordon and then a bunch of moves on the margins that will possibly be as motivated by luxury tax and related financial implications as on-court impact? Take, for example, the deal that sent Mfiondu Kabengele from the LA Clippers to the Sacramento Kings. The Lakers or Sixers, among others, could be looking at similar deals to open up a little extra flexibility.
Leroux: The other group to mention are players who could really move the needle but could also stick on their current teams until the offseason or even beyond. Harrison Barnes is at the head of that class for me because the Kings could easily and justifiably keep him, especially if they feel offers will be similarly strong or even better in the offseason when some trade partners have more flexibility and others have more desperation after playoff disappointment.
Partnow: Barnes feels like the exact player who is more likely to stay in place this season than he might during a deadline period with the top contenders having a freer hand in terms of assets and salary mechanics. He’s a solid, versatile player, but I’m not sure he’s enough of a needle-mover for teams to want to dip too far into their currently projected playoff rotations to acquire him. But in most cases, that’s what it would take in terms of outgoing salary.
Leroux: Agreed, with the note that the Celtics are a potential variable since they have a trade exception big enough to acquire Barnes and he would be a valuable addition to their team. Still, bringing him in now or later makes them significantly more expensive and illustrates a different reason why big deadline deals feel unlikely.
Partnow: For me, the biggest potential swing on the board is if Lowry ends up with the 76ers. I don’t totally understand the persistent rumors of him going to Miami, but if the Heat are really interested, they think they’re a lot closer to making another deep playoff run than I do.
Meanwhile, for the 76ers, Lowry has the combination of shooting, toughness and playoff experience to turn a team that has been an intriguing enigma for so long into a more recognizable shape. Especially if they could somehow make the deal without including Matisse Thybulle, I think Philly has the defensive chops to run out a Lowry-Seth Curry backcourt a fair amount.
Am I missing a possible destination where he would have as big an impact? And if Lowry doesn’t move, what’s the next biggest possibility?
Leroux: I really like Lowry’s fit on the 76ers because they need another player who can create offense for himself and others without compromising their defensive integrity in order to become a more dangerous threat to elite opposition. While far from a perfect player, Lowry (who turns 35 on deadline day, as luck would have it) accomplishes that double for Philadelphia, and it will be exceedingly hard for Daryl Morey to find another player who does so either now or in the 2021 offseason since they will only have the midlevel exception for signing new players unless Morey adds Lowry’s Bird rights.
The way Lowry changes Miami’s fortunes more dramatically is if Pat Riley feels Goran Dragic cannot or will not be the player he was in the bubble this time around. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo handle more of the creation responsibilities than most players at their positions, but the Heat offense has stagnated far too often this season and their other best offensive players are larger defensive liabilities, which creates problems when putting together viable five-man lineups.
One reason the Heat may be firmly in the conversation is that Lowry may prefer to sign there in free agency should both sides be able to find common ground in terms of salary. Lowry’s well-known friendship with Butler is likely a factor, but Miami has cap space and a role to offer, so it would not be stunning to see the Heat get in the mix, particularly since adding Lowry now allows Riley to stay over the cap in the offseason and potentially retain more of their armada of pending free agents. That looked extremely unlikely when the Heat avoided long-term deals last offseason, but Giannis Antetokoumpo signing an extension took away the best reason to retain spending power for this summer. Still, I like Lowry much more on the 76ers, and they have much more motivation to get a deal done now, assuming Lowry is willing to stick around beyond this season.
Partnow: I think you raise an important point that has been assumed in these Lowry discussions but should be made explicit: Because of the size of his current contract and Toronto’s likely asking price in terms of assets, a team is not trading for Lowry as a half-season rental but rather as a player it intends to sign. The magic of NBA agent-to-executive telepathy may have even landed upon a sensible arrangement to be formalized in the offseason. But this aspect gives Lowry more de facto power over where he ends up than even his vast amount of organizational capital with Toronto allows.

Leroux: Other than Lowry, it appears the key players on the 2021 deadline block are forwards. Going back to our Big Board, three of the top four players spend most of their time there, and Barnes is a worthy addition to the discussion as well, considering the Kings are presumably discussing moving him at the deadline too. We have already ranked those players in the aforementioned Big Board, but a key question is how prospective trade partners value Gordon, Barnes, Young, John Collins and Rudy Gay. While that is a pretty robust list of candidates, even with P.J. Tucker and Trevor Ariza off the board, forward scarcity is still remarkable, and those players should generate a significant return. There are a few angles to discuss here, but where I want to start is whether anyone stands out as a particularly strong or weak value for the discussed asset cost to acquire them?
Partnow: We’ve already talked about Barnes, so let’s move on to Gordon. He’s a player for whom the idea of what he can do has often outstripped the player we actually see. How much of that is intrinsic to Gordon’s game, and how much of it is a matter of spending his career in a situation where the top initiator he has played with may be D.J. Augustin? If he moves, someone is making a big bet on those situational factors being heavily influential in what seems like something of a stalled developmental curve for a player who doesn’t turn 26 until shortly before next season.
Should Boston acquire him for picks and not have to include Marcus Smart, the Celtics start to shape up as a miserable playoff opponent, and if the deal somehow involves Tristan Thompson departing Boston, I think removing the veteran club from Brad Stevens’ golf bag and forcing him to live with a few more of Robert Wiliams’ mistakes further increases their upside.
Leroux: Oooh, I like that possibility, though the defensive assignments could get interesting since Jayson Tatum’s skill as a help defender makes him most dangerous as a power forward in most alignments. Gordon can take on smaller forwards, but getting the fit right may be challenging. That said, adding another forward would help the Celtics beyond their starting and closing fives, especially if they can add him without giving up Smart. In a weird way, Danny Ainge could actually benefit in negotiations from the Celtics’ weaker-than-expected record because the 2021 first-round pick they would send to the Magic is better than we would have expected.
Still, I am skeptical that two late firsts are more attractive than what other teams will offer for a 25-year old forward with room to improve on both ends of the floor. Heck, the Magic should be able to get something in that range for Gordon in the offseason, and they will have a much better idea of their overall situation at that point. The Celtics may face that same problem with Barnes and Gordon: Negotiating against themselves and other August suitors since their current teams could easily keep them until then hoping for circumstances to change and/or a stronger return.
Partnow: Danny Almost, part 47?
Leroux: As a quick aside, Robert Williams is the most fascinating domino in Celtics trade negotiations. He would be an awesome fit on the Kings moving forward and should be much better than the expected value of late firsts, but would Ainge include him?
Partnow: It’s hard to see Williams moving with Barnes as the centerpiece of the return. The value might be OK there, but I don’t think the Celtics are close enough this season for me to punt on Williams’ potential. Such a trade would be pretty inconsistent with Ainge’s MO as well. Making the trade bigger runs us into some of the same complications we’ve already discussed in terms of outgoing salaries. For example, if Boston were getting Barnes and Buddy Hield? Sure. But then Thompson likely has to be included, which in turn means Ainge would demand Richaun Holmes as well, and then the negotiations collapse on themselves…
Leroux: I am in the same boat. Williams is not off the market but only worth moving in a deal where they added someone who moves the needle more than Barnes or Gordon.
Partnow: Let’s turn a little more to the buyer side to identify some needs we think the top teams should be looking to fill. Is there a glaring need that, were it filled, completes a given team? I can think of two: Denver could use a high-level wing player, preferably someone with the size to guard big scoring wings, and the Clippers need an injection of offensive oomph.
Leroux: We already talked about a half-court creator for the 76ers, which I think is the biggest correctable weakness for a contender. The Celtics upgrading at center would make a big difference, but I like your two picks as well. The Nuggets have an intriguing combination of young players and vets on reasonable contracts (even though Gary Harris does not fit that description) and need a forward who makes sense next to Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter Jr., assuming Porter is a long-term starter in Denver. Like you, I prefer someone who can take the most challenging defensive assignments and ideally space the floor to keep their offensive gears moving. There just are not many available players who fit that description of any age, and even fewer available who are even close to Jokic and Jamal Murray’s age, which is a small but relevant consideration.
Partnow: I’ll again voice my opinion that the Nuggets should be seeing exactly where putting Porter into trade talks gets them. You have a potential MVP playing the best ball of his career, and I’d rather push the chips in on that than roll the dice on the future of a guy who remains an injury time-bomb and still has plenty to figure out defensively to be at a championship level. But I’d probably be outvoted many-to-one in by Denver’s actual brain trust.
Leroux: Agreed on the Porter front.
The Clippers should be looking for someone who can create good shots but does not require the ball to be viable and can also defend well enough to be on the floor in key situations. George Hill likely checks two of those boxes, but can he create enough separation to get defenses to react and rotate? I am skeptical, though the asking price could be small enough to make it worthwhile anyway. My wild idea of solving that spot for future seasons with Spencer Dinwiddie notwithstanding, the guy I would love to see there is Patty Mills. The Spurs are firmly in the playoff mix and justifiably could want to keep Mills beyond this season, so he may not be on the market. But that is a call worth making, and Lawrence Frank should also inquire about Devonte’ Graham. The other wild idea would be making a play for Evan Fournier, but the matching salary gets thorny unless they see him as a big enough upgrade on Patrick Beverley to roll the dice.
Partnow: Just don’t look at Fournier’s career playoff performances — his career postseason true shooting percentage is a ghastly 46.0 — if you’re talking yourself into him as the guy to add.
Let’s wrap by discussing one more name: John Collins. I vacillate between thinking that a team on the rise (Charlotte?) should package some combination of present-day performers and future assets for him even understanding he’s due for a big payday this summer. Then I remember the worries about Collins’ long-term potential as a playoff-level defender at either the four or five. Plus, Atlanta has been on such a good run (through a croissant-like soft and flaky portion of the schedule) that the timing is tough to persuade them to actually make a deal.
Leroux: I talked about this with Chris Kirschner on Wednesday and my core thesis is that Collins does more to help raise teams’ floors than really improve their ceiling, at least in his current form. The Hornets need someone who can be the foundation for their defensive identity. While they can conceivably get that player and Collins, that gets difficult logistically because he will get such a big raise so soon. In the Hawks’ position, I would move Collins for a reasonable return even if that means a painful short-term dip because retaining him for 2021-22 and beyond locks them into a team that can make the playoffs but would be hard-pressed to move much beyond that without huge internal improvement.
Partnow: The Hawks are in the precise situation with Collins where teams on the rise often clip their own wings, though the difficulty of this decision is much more a result of their offseason spending spree than it is of Collins per see.
As we wrap, I’ll note we’ve spent much more time talking about why deals are unlikely to happen than which ones make the most sense. That is largely representative of the general feeling about this deadline. But supposedly quiet deadlines have gone haywire before. The 2018 deadline was a bit like that, and then Cleveland traded seemingly its entire team. So we’ll see.
 

Jay Johnson

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I'd be happy if Lowry ended up on the Sixers. Dude makes things happen out on the court.
 

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