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New Georgia runoffs data finds that more Black voters than usual came out. Trump voters stayed home

Andre1984

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To put it in context

Republicans relied on Trump to whip up votes for Georgia.

The House Minority Leader just went to kiss Trump's @ss believing him to be the way to win the 2022 midterms.

This could not be the winning strategy they think it will be.

New Georgia runoffs data finds that more Black voters than usual came out. Trump voters stayed home.

This month, Georgia voters sent two Democrats to the U.S. Senate after runoff elections, breaking with a decades-long history of electing Republicans. Raphael G. Warnock and Jon Ossoff’s victories were particularly surprising, since Republicans usually have an advantage in off-cycle elections, which usually bring out an older, whiter and more conservative electorate (not just in Georgia but nationwide) than those who show up in November.


How did both Democratic candidates overcome that disadvantage? Our analysis finds two notable patterns that could account for the wins: high turnout among Black voters and low turnout in the predominantly White and rural precincts that had supported incumbent President Donald Trump.

For months, Trump refused to concede the presidential election to Democrat Joe Biden. In particular, Trump and his allies claimed that Georgia’s results were fraudulent.

Did this discourage Trump’s supporters from voting? Precincts that had supported Trump at high rates in the general election reported more dramatic turnout declines than precincts in which Trump was less popular. For example, in precincts where Trump received 75 percent of the November vote, turnout dropped 8.3 percentage points from the general election to the runoff. Precincts where Trump received 25 percent of the vote showed a drop of only 5.9 percentage points from November to January.

When we used other ways to measure Trump’s popularity in each precinct, we found similar results. For instance, in the November elections, then-Rep. Douglas A. Collins (R-Ga.), a fierce Trump supporter, was a third candidate running in the special election against incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) and Warnock. In precincts where Collins won a higher percentage of the vote, people turned out at lower rates in the runoff.

In contrast, precincts where Loeffler, the more traditional candidate, had performed better against Collins in November, recorded smaller drops in turnout. Similarly, if we look at the November Senate race among then-Sen. David Perdue (R), Democrat Jon Ossoff and Libertarian Shane Hazel, there were also large declines in turnout in the precincts where Trump had received more Republican votes against Joe Biden than Perdue had gotten against his opponents.

Cozying up to Trump may have hurt Perdue and Loeffler in the Georgia run-offs

Taken together, these patterns suggest that Trump’s strongest backers failed to vote in the runoff.
 

Lexytheblasian

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Georgia voter here. Those two seats should’ve been easily winnable for Republicans, but because Trump wouldn’t shut up about voter fraud and rigged elections, he suppressed his own voter turnout lmfao.

Also, it’s not a good idea to try to overturn election results in predominantly black areas. That’s a great way to piss folks off.
 

Fiestyfunsize

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Yep Trum supporters only support him not republicans. When he goes to rally to support
his part members ppl show up for him not the candidates! Also hyping up voter fraud doesn’t help matters
 

doodle332

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Georgia voter here. Those two seats should’ve been easily winnable for Republicans, but because Trump wouldn’t shut up about voter fraud and rigged elections, he suppressed his own voter turnout lmfao.

Also, it’s not a good idea to try to overturn election results in predominantly black areas. That’s a great way to piss folks off.

That devil cut his nose off to spite his face. Good. Ad as you know, one of our legislators here has prposed to have 2 forms of ID in order to absentee vote. Here we go.... VOTER SUPRESSION.
 

Taralynn23

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I don’t live in Ga but I’m hearing they are trying to enact new voter suppression laws.. I hope the good black folks and Dominian start a law suit.
 

Lexytheblasian

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I don’t live in Ga but I’m hearing they are trying to enact new voter suppression laws.. I hope the good black folks and Dominian start a law suit.

Yep. They didn’t waste any time smh.

That devil cut his nose off to spite his face. Good. Ad as you know, one of our legislators here has prposed to have 2 forms of ID in order to absentee vote. Here we go.... VOTER SUPRESSION.

Yep smh. They moved with a quickness too. I knew that’s exactly what they would do once they realized how high black voter turnout was here.

It’s kinda an open secret that Stacy will run for Governor in 2022 and I think her chances of winning are pretty good... BUT I worry about what kind of voter suppression laws will be on the books in GA by the time we get to that election.

That being said, I’ll feel better about it when the Senate passes the Voting Reform Bill. They’ll have to get rid of the filibuster or something though because I don’t see 10 Republicans joining Dems to pass it.
 

KrazyAngel

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Georgia voter here. Those two seats should’ve been easily winnable for Republicans, but because Trump wouldn’t shut up about voter fraud and rigged elections, he suppressed his own voter turnout lmfao.

Also, it’s not a good idea to try to overturn election results in predominantly black areas. That’s a great way to piss folks off.
Same. I went to vote with my mom, and we were stressed feeling the future of our nation depended on our state, but we were also mad as hell. Kemp has really taken us through some sh!t with his utter incompetence. Can’t wait to vote him out next year too. I know he’s scared.
 

Hugs and Kisses

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There is also another one that speaks about the gains in the Georgia suburbs being from Black People who are moving there. Yet, so called political analysts associate the suburbs with white people
 

sade

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Somebody sends this to the Democratic Chairmen and Biden. Because the policies they are pushing makes me think they thought illegals and immigrants came out in record numbers and made the difference.
 

Andre1984

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Somebody sends this to the Democratic Chairmen and Biden. Because the policies they are pushing makes me think they thought illegals and immigrants came out in record numbers and made the difference.

Trump lost

Get over it
 

A.L.I.

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Somebody sends this to the Democratic Chairmen and Biden. Because the policies they are pushing makes me think they thought illegals and immigrants came out in record numbers and made the difference.
They know black people made the difference and that's why he gave us a special shout out in his speech after he won.
 

VeraJayne

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Kudos to GA!!!
It’s because of GA that these republicans got the fear of God put in them because their decades long tradition of suppressing black votes is coming to an end and they are scaredT.

GA has set the precedent. I have a feeling other hardline “red” states (TX, LA, MS, AL, NC) will follow in the south. It will take time but I believe it will be in our lifetime.
 

Pray Tell

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Not surprised one bit. I'm also not surprised that the Republicans I openly trying to suppress the black vote. However, they're not going to get away with it because the Democrats control the Executive and Legislative branches. They could pass laws to prevent voter suppression or Joe could sign an executive order. But I'm glad that the GOP have eased off the voter fraud lies and showing everyone that they really don't believe in democracy for everyone.
 

MelonJuice

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Black folks are very reflexive when we feel like people are trying to violate. This situation was no different. Trump basically encouraged the Republicans base to stay home. Loeffler and Perdue were also out-campaigned. There was no excitement surrounding them.
 

jetsetta

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Y'all there was a THIRD runoff in Georgia that the dems did not win. It was for the public service commission. A young black man lost to some 80 y/o boomer. This is the office that keeps utility companies in check and Georgia Power has been turning people's electricity off during this pandemic.

I wish the dem party as a whole would focus on local races. The reason why states are so fµcked up now is because a lot of republicans are running unopposed. The GA Supreme Court doesn't have one dem on it and the GOP control the state house and senate.

There were a lot of too faced 'moderates' who voted for national dems and kept the GOP stronghold on the state. The GOP did lose the supermajority so there's that. But Stacey won't be able do anything if we don't keep chipping away at the GOP hold on the state. The rural counties have too much power over the rest of the state and they’re drowning out representation of the metro areas and the black belt.
 

Caramelbelle

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Y'all there was a THIRD runoff in Georgia that the dems did not win. It was for the public service commission. A young black man lost to some 80 y/o boomer. This is the office that keeps utility companies in check and Georgia Power has been turning people's electricity off during this pandemic.

I wish the dem party as a whole would focus on local races. The reason why states are so fµcked up now is because a lot of republicans are running unopposed. The GA Supreme Court doesn't have one dem on it and the GOP control the state house and senate.

There were a lot of too faced 'moderates' who voted for national dems and kept the GOP stronghold on the state. The GOP did lose the supermajority so there's that. But Stacey won't be able do anything if we don't keep chipping away at the GOP hold on the state. The rural counties have too much power over the rest of the state and they’re drowning out representation of the metro areas and the black belt.

There is no excuse why Daniel Blackman lost his race when Ossoff and Warnock won theirs. The Georgia Democrat party and other political organizations ignored the PSC race after receiving MILLIONS of dollars.

You can't call Georgia a blue state if we can't win local races. The Georgia state house, senate, and Governor are still controlled by Republicans.
 

Violet Spring

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Y'all there was a THIRD runoff in Georgia that the dems did not win. It was for the public service commission. A young black man lost to some 80 y/o boomer. This is the office that keeps utility companies in check and Georgia Power has been turning people's electricity off during this pandemic.

I wish the dem party as a whole would focus on local races. The reason why states are so fµcked up now is because a lot of republicans are running unopposed. The GA Supreme Court doesn't have one dem on it and the GOP control the state house and senate.

There were a lot of too faced 'moderates' who voted for national dems and kept the GOP stronghold on the state. The GOP did lose the supermajority so there's that. But Stacey won't be able do anything if we don't keep chipping away at the GOP hold on the state. The rural counties have too much power over the rest of the state and they’re drowning out representation of the metro areas and the black belt.
THIS is what Jaimie Harrison needs to do in his new position. Cause the federal gov't can only do so much. A lot of these laws that affect close to home are passed by local state governments, and black folks need to pay attention them all from who's on your school boards and beyond. The rethuglican terrorists are up in most of the southern states running the legislatures and in addition to voter suppression laws, they are now trying to erase the history of slavery, Jim Crow, Civil Rights from the education curriculum. And while Biden EO's put an end to Trump's 1776 whatever the fµck it was called...the state local school boards can still fµck with the history taught in those schools.
The Democratic party needs to continue to educate, cause folks don't even know that these positions even exist much less knowing who's filling them.

We need to get civics lessons back into our schools. There is no civics being taught.
 
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