Andre1984
moaning in potato raisin ecstasy
To put it in context
Republicans relied on Trump to whip up votes for Georgia.
The House Minority Leader just went to kiss Trump's @ss believing him to be the way to win the 2022 midterms.
This could not be the winning strategy they think it will be.
New Georgia runoffs data finds that more Black voters than usual came out. Trump voters stayed home.
This month, Georgia voters sent two Democrats to the U.S. Senate after runoff elections, breaking with a decades-long history of electing Republicans. Raphael G. Warnock and Jon Ossoff’s victories were particularly surprising, since Republicans usually have an advantage in off-cycle elections, which usually bring out an older, whiter and more conservative electorate (not just in Georgia but nationwide) than those who show up in November.
How did both Democratic candidates overcome that disadvantage? Our analysis finds two notable patterns that could account for the wins: high turnout among Black voters and low turnout in the predominantly White and rural precincts that had supported incumbent President Donald Trump.
For months, Trump refused to concede the presidential election to Democrat Joe Biden. In particular, Trump and his allies claimed that Georgia’s results were fraudulent.
Did this discourage Trump’s supporters from voting? Precincts that had supported Trump at high rates in the general election reported more dramatic turnout declines than precincts in which Trump was less popular. For example, in precincts where Trump received 75 percent of the November vote, turnout dropped 8.3 percentage points from the general election to the runoff. Precincts where Trump received 25 percent of the vote showed a drop of only 5.9 percentage points from November to January.
When we used other ways to measure Trump’s popularity in each precinct, we found similar results. For instance, in the November elections, then-Rep. Douglas A. Collins (R-Ga.), a fierce Trump supporter, was a third candidate running in the special election against incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) and Warnock. In precincts where Collins won a higher percentage of the vote, people turned out at lower rates in the runoff.
In contrast, precincts where Loeffler, the more traditional candidate, had performed better against Collins in November, recorded smaller drops in turnout. Similarly, if we look at the November Senate race among then-Sen. David Perdue (R), Democrat Jon Ossoff and Libertarian Shane Hazel, there were also large declines in turnout in the precincts where Trump had received more Republican votes against Joe Biden than Perdue had gotten against his opponents.
Cozying up to Trump may have hurt Perdue and Loeffler in the Georgia run-offs
Taken together, these patterns suggest that Trump’s strongest backers failed to vote in the runoff.
Republicans relied on Trump to whip up votes for Georgia.
The House Minority Leader just went to kiss Trump's @ss believing him to be the way to win the 2022 midterms.
This could not be the winning strategy they think it will be.
New Georgia runoffs data finds that more Black voters than usual came out. Trump voters stayed home.
This month, Georgia voters sent two Democrats to the U.S. Senate after runoff elections, breaking with a decades-long history of electing Republicans. Raphael G. Warnock and Jon Ossoff’s victories were particularly surprising, since Republicans usually have an advantage in off-cycle elections, which usually bring out an older, whiter and more conservative electorate (not just in Georgia but nationwide) than those who show up in November.
How did both Democratic candidates overcome that disadvantage? Our analysis finds two notable patterns that could account for the wins: high turnout among Black voters and low turnout in the predominantly White and rural precincts that had supported incumbent President Donald Trump.
For months, Trump refused to concede the presidential election to Democrat Joe Biden. In particular, Trump and his allies claimed that Georgia’s results were fraudulent.
Did this discourage Trump’s supporters from voting? Precincts that had supported Trump at high rates in the general election reported more dramatic turnout declines than precincts in which Trump was less popular. For example, in precincts where Trump received 75 percent of the November vote, turnout dropped 8.3 percentage points from the general election to the runoff. Precincts where Trump received 25 percent of the vote showed a drop of only 5.9 percentage points from November to January.
When we used other ways to measure Trump’s popularity in each precinct, we found similar results. For instance, in the November elections, then-Rep. Douglas A. Collins (R-Ga.), a fierce Trump supporter, was a third candidate running in the special election against incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) and Warnock. In precincts where Collins won a higher percentage of the vote, people turned out at lower rates in the runoff.
In contrast, precincts where Loeffler, the more traditional candidate, had performed better against Collins in November, recorded smaller drops in turnout. Similarly, if we look at the November Senate race among then-Sen. David Perdue (R), Democrat Jon Ossoff and Libertarian Shane Hazel, there were also large declines in turnout in the precincts where Trump had received more Republican votes against Joe Biden than Perdue had gotten against his opponents.
Cozying up to Trump may have hurt Perdue and Loeffler in the Georgia run-offs
Taken together, these patterns suggest that Trump’s strongest backers failed to vote in the runoff.